When will the scrappage scheme end?

More drivers are scrapping their old cars to get new ones

The government’s scrappage scheme has proved popular with the public and over 220,000 cars have been sold on it so far.

But with the end of the programme in sight – only 300,000 cars will be sold on the scheme – dealers and manufacturers are beginning to worry that a late rush for scrappage cars could bring it to an early conclusion.

Those fears were reinforced by the publication of the latest weekly scrappage orders which were the highest yet, at over 12,000. So when is the scheme going to run out?

Scrappage orders have increased the last four weeks in a row

An average of 10,430 cars have been sold on the scrappage scheme per week over the last eight weeks. If that average continues, the scheme has just under six weeks to run.

But if the new high of 12,000 is repeated over the coming weeks, the scheme will end a week sooner than that, possibly even before October is finished:

When the scrappage scheme will end, based on 12,000 orders per week

Even that could prove to be a conservative projection. If the total number of cars sold on scrappage continues to increase, the scheme could run out in four weeks’ time or less.

Either way, that is much earlier than the guaranteed deadline for the scheme, which is February of next year.

With the end of the scrappage scheme coming up more quickly than expected, should the government now grant an extension?

Keith Collantine, expert guide editor